August 2021 Porter Partnership Forecast

This month’s forecast speaks to the various factors causing an impact (or anticipated impact) on the current state of the market environment. Rest assured that we will continue to work closely with our network of vendor partners, and industry market experts to ensure we plan out our inventory accordingly, and that we have the most up-to-date information to best arm you for proper project planning & due diligence. As always, please feel free to reach out to our team with any questions or for real-time updates. 

Domestic Copper

  • The Comex has traded over the past 30 days between $4.20 – $4.58 
  • Many mills are running lead times between 6 – 8 weeks. ACR 10-12 weeks. These lead times are heavily impacted by the availability of trucking, mixed with the accelerated demand for copper tube since the beginning of this year. This new lead-time is an improvement over previously published lead-times
    • These lead-times are said to continue through the third quarter
    • Prior to the material and product shortages we are currently experiencing, average lead-time on copper was 1-3 weeks 
  • The recent slide in Comex Pricing is due to market concerns about the slowing growth of the Chinese industrial sector and the worry around the role the Delta Variant will have on economic recoveries
  • On August 2nd, the workers at the world’s largest copper mine voted to strike. By law, they must continue working through a 10-day arbitration period. If no deal is struck, we would expect an increase of the Comex
  • Over the next 30 days we expect copper to trade between $4.20 and $4.50 

Domestic Carbon Steel Pipe

  • HRC closed out July at $1,870/ton which is a $147/ton increase in the month of July
  • Domestic Mill lead times are 8–12-week range or longer
    • Prior to the material and product shortages we are currently experiencing, average lead-time on steel was 1-3 weeks 
  • We expect the cost of coil to continue to increase over the month and expect to exceed $1,920/ton 
  • Lead times remain extended with restricted coil capacity continuing through the third quarter of 2021 

PVC Pipe and Fittings

  • There was a PVC pipe increase of 8% implemented July 30th, 2021 (effective immediately)
  • There is a 7% increase on PVC DWV fittings effective August 28th, 2021
    • Both announced increases will hold for the time being 
  • Resin converters are reporting shipments of 80% – 90% (or less) originally ordered quantities. Resin producers have not fully recovered from last year’s hurricane season and the winter storms only furthered supply constraints
  • Manufacturer lead times on plastic pipe are extending 12-16 weeks with all producers publishing allocation notices. Some manufactures have stopped taking orders for Sch40 PVC pipe or limiting their size offering to focus on their core customer needs
    • Prior to the current market dynamics, previous lead-times were 1-2 weeks
    • The above-mentioned allocation amounts have been further reduced by some from a 1/12 annual purchase allotment to a 1/24 allotment

Domestic Carbon Steel Fittings and Flanges

  • On July 6th, we were notified of another increase, effective immediately. This time it applied to flanges
  • Be prepared for there to be more increases on both fittings and flanges by the end of the quarter

Import Carbon Steel Fittings and Flanges

  • We received one price increase to this product segment in July, changing of the manufacturers list price
  • We are expecting another double digit increase to both fittings and flanges in August

Stainless Steel Pipe and Fittings

  • Stainless Steel pricing will continue its upward pricing pressures in July o Nickel surcharges rose 3% 
    • Molybdenum surcharges rose 15.7% 
  • Supply of finished material continues to be disrupted as the offshored material is impacted by labor shortages at the ports — overall transportation restraints continue
  • July increases on Stainless Steel finished goods continued 
    • Stainless steel ANSI flanges 16% – 20% 
    • Stainless steel butt-weld fittings and type “A” stub ends 21% – 25% 
  • Shortages continue on imported welded A312 pipe
  • We expect continued price increases and product availability issues through the end of the year
  • On a brighter note, we expect domestically produced A270 Sanitary tube to be more readily available as the labor strike at ATI has been resolved. We look to the end of September for the supply chain to get better

Domestic Hangers, Channel Strut Fittings

  • There was an increase of 8-18% on Strut Channel Effective July 19th 
  • There was an increase of 12-15% on Hangers Effective July 19th 
  • We do expect continued increases on this product segment in Q3 2021 

Welded Pipe Nipples and Malleable Fittings

  • There was an increase of 6% on both welded and seamless nipples effective July 19th
  • There was an increase of 8% on malleable fittings effective July 19th. This is projected to hold 
  • We expect another increase in the third quarter 

Viega Press Fittings

  • This is an announced 3% increase to all press fitting systems September 1st 

Bronze & Iron Valves

  • Most manufactures have announced increases for the latter half of June or early July. These increases range from 3% – 8% depending on manufacturer and product. It’s not suspected to be the last increase of the year

A105 Forged Fittings and Branch Olet

  • The July scheduled price increase has been pushed to September. o 11.5% on Forged fittings and unions 
    • 15% on Branch Outlets 

Lochinvar Residential, Commercial and Tank Product

  • The July 31st increase of the following segments is now in effect
    • Residential Water Heaters Up to 12%
    • Commercial Standard Water Heater and Select Tanks up to 10%
    • Parts up to 6% 

To Our Partners

On behalf of all of us in the Porter Pipe & Supply Family, we THANK YOU for the opportunity to partner with you! Let’s enter the second half of 2021 strong and continue our endeavor in building America! We send our best wishes to you & your family for a healthy & safe conclusion to Summer 2021. God bless!

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